Falkland Islands Invade South America.

It is often erroneously stated that the four Typhoon fighers based in the Falklands can defend those islands from attacks.

There are a number of reasons why this is not the case.

One of those reasons is weather.

The Typhoons have only a single runway to operate from in the Falkland Islands.

That runway is sometimes closed by the often atrocious weather.

Usually the Typhoons manage to land before this happens.

But sometimes they do not.

In those cases the Typhoons must divert to an airbase on the South American mainland.

This requires a great deal of fuel and it is the reason there is a VC10 tanker aircraft in the Falklands to support fighter operations.

When the runway is closed the tanker has enough fuel to get the fighters to the nearest mainland base.

More accurately,to the nearest friendly mainland base.

Landing in Argentina would cause an international incident.

This is why two Typhoons and a VC10 recently found themselves in Punta Arenas,Chile.

To get to Punta Arenas they had to fly through Argentinian airspace.

This article about this incident was published by MercoPress.

Why Argentina Will Not Invade The Falkland Islands

In 1982,the Royal Navy was ready to fight Soviet nuclear submarines in the North Atlantic.

It was not ready to fight the Falklands War.

It is now.

Every Royal Navy warship,and many auxiliaries,now has the ability to shoot down fast jets and anti-ship missiles,unlike the fleet that sailed south in 1982 with completely inadequate air defences.

The Royal Navy is today very well trained in engaging fast moving air threats,again,unlike in 1982.

This capability was demonstrated when the Royal Navy became the only navy ever to shoot down an anti-ship missile in the Persian Gulf in 1991.

The Royal Navy also has airborne early warning which it lacked in 1982.

The air attacks which Argentina used so successfully in 1982 are no longer viable against the Royal Navy.

In 1982,the Royal Navy’s passive sonars,which were very useful against noisy Soviet nuclear submarines in deep water,proved inadequate against Argentine diesel-electric submarines in shallow water.

Today the Royal Navy’s Type 23 frigates have the world’s best shallow water anti-submarine capability thanks to the Merlin helicopter,Stingray torpedo and low frequency active/passive towed array sonar 2087 and active/passive bow sonar 2050.

In 1982 the Royal navy had a small,old and not very capable amphibious force which was about to be retired from service.

The amphibious force was lacking in both helicopters and suitable vehicles.

Today it has an all new and very capable amphibious capability,including a helicopter carrier and tracked armoured vehicles suitable for the terrain in the Falklands.

In 1982 British ground forces were not combat experienced and were poorly equipped.

Today they have many years of constant,intensive infantry combat experience and excellent personal kit.

One thing has not changed since 1982,the Royal Navy’s submarines can still sink any Argentine warship they can find.

The difference is,today they can do it much more quickly with high speed Spearfish guided torpedos.

Those submarines can also punch holes in runways at convenient times with Tomahawk missiles,as can the Fleet Air Arm and Royal Air Force Harriers if Storm Shadow missiles are integrated.

Again,unlike 1982 when Argentinian airbases were left to go about their business.

With the capacity of the Invincible class carriers now increased to 23 Harriers,and a total fleet of 74 aircraft,a task force is likely to take at least 60 Harriers with it to the Falklands.

The two aircraft carriers would take 46 between them,H.M.S.Ocean cannot sustain Harrier operations but she and many other ships,such as the Bay class,can ferry aircraft and launch them in an emergency.

While the Argentinians significantly outnumbered the British aircraft in 1982,today the British would have a 3:2 advantage,although their fighters would lack radar.

In summary,Argentina has no chance of taking on a modern British naval task group,although it has every chance of overwhelming the meagre defences in the Falkland Islands.

The Argentinians know there is little point invading the Falklands if they can’t hold them for more than a month.

Which is why they won’t invade them,despite the weakness of the defending forces.

How To Invade The Falkland Islands

Since long before their invasion in 1982,the government of Argentina has regularly threatened and inconvenienced the people of the Falkland Islands.

The islanders are well used to such bluster and regard it with a haughty disdain.

However,many outside the Falklands,particularly those not familiar with the situation,regard such behaviour with more seriousness than it deserves.

This is particularly the case when the World's media decides that Argentina's latest rhetoric is a newsworthy story.

Such coverage can give many the impression that a second Falklands War is imminent,however unlikely that may be.

Even though an Argentinian invasion of the Falklands is a remote possibility,it is interesting to consider how they might go about such an operation.

First let us consider the opposing forces,for the sake of brevity we will list only the major combat units on both sides.

British forces in the Falkland islands consist of:one Type 42 destroyer somewhere in the South Atlantic;one infantry company;one anti aircraft battery and 4 Typhoon combat aircraft of 1435 Flight.

In addition,there is likely to be a British nuclear powered submarine somewhere in the Atlantic,though not necessarily near the Falklands.

Argentine forces consist of:five destroyers;six frigates;three corvettes;three submarines;eleven army brigades with all support arms (including one parachute brigade and other elements of the Fuerza de Despliegue Rápido rapid deployment force);two brigades of marines with supporting arms;forty eight fighter aircraft;thirty six light ground attack aircraft,eleven maritime patrol aircraft and 10 Hercules transport aircraft.

The first problem which the Argentinian forces must consider is that they are unlikely to be able to counter the British submarines which may be operating in the area.


Fortunately Britain's small submarine fleet is unlikely to be able to sustain more than one submarine in the Falklands and that can only be in one place at one time.


It would also be unable to engage Argentinian vessels which could quite legally approach close to the Falklands prior to the commencement of hostilities.


If Argentinian vessels dispersed and approached from different directions the submarine may be able to sink only a single vessel before the invading troops are landed.

Subsequent to combat operations beginning,the British Submarine will have less restrictive rules of engagement and will be able to interdict sea traffic to the Falklands.


Consequently it may be neccessary to support Argentinian ground forces by air after the commencement of hostilities as they did in 1982.

Argentinian air assault forces are likely to be the brigade sized Fuerza de Despliegue Rápido.

However,the Royal Air Force (R.A.F.) Typhoons based at Mount Pleasant airbase could shoot down any Argentine transport aircraft.

The Typhoons will then have to be neutralised before the air assault.

Argentine combat aircraft are far less capable than the Typhoon but far more numerous.

They would have little chance of destroying the Typhoons in air combat.

Fortunately there are only 4 Typhoons based in the Falklands,with only 3 likely to be operational on any day,and these are dependent on a single airfield.

Neutralising that airfield even temporarily may permanently neutralise the Typhoons.

The airbase on the Falklands is protected by a battery of Rapier anti-aircraft missiles.

While a direct bombing attack on the airfield may prevent the Typhoons from taking off or landing,such an attack is likely to be costly.

It is then more desirable to neutralise the airfield by other means.

The small size of the Falklands infantry garrison makes a ground assault on the airfield a viable proposition.

However,it would be time consuming to deploy an adequate force to the islands and for them to get to and seize the airfield.

Such an operation is then only viable after the Typhoons have been neutralised.

If an artillery battery could be positioned within range of the air base (a twenty five mile radius for the latest types of Argentine artillery),it could temporarily neutralise both the airfield and it's air defences.

By cratering the runway,or scattering mines on it an artillery battery can neutralise a runway temporarily.

Airborne Typhoons would be unable to land when they ran out of fuel.

Aircraft on the ground would be unable to take off.

British reinforcements would not be able to be brought in without a runway to land on.

Although the runway could be cleared,it could not be cleared quickly enough.


A similar effect can be acheived by getting man portable weapons such as the Argentinian R.B.S70 anti-aircraft missile,various long range sniper rifles,machineguns,mortars or anti-tank weapons within effective radius of the runway to engage aircraft on the ground.

Again however,the Typhoon threat must be neutralised for a short time in order to land an artillery battery and the infantry needed to protect it from the Falklands garrison or a major ground force.

As the primary means of air defence for the Falklands airspace these aircraft must conduct regular patrols as well as maintain a "Quick Reaction Alert" (Q.R.A.) to deal with any intrusions.

With just 4 Typhoons on the Falklands,it is likely that there are no more than 3 aircraft available for operations at any one time.

Fighter aircraft operate in pairs.

With just 3 available aircraft it is unlikely that 1435 Flight could sustain two daily patrols and maintain two aircraft permanently on Q.R.A.,this would be well above what British combat aircraft have generated in recent conflicts.

Once a patrol (and it's supporting tanker) run low on fuel,they must land.

After landing those aircraft are unavailable for a time due to the need for fuel and maintenance.

If the Q.R.A. pair can be encouraged to scramble while a patrol is out,then all of the defending aircraft may run low on fuel at a similar time.

In a peacetime situation,Argentinian aircraft can enter Falklands airspace with little fear of engagement.

Having no airborne early warning* and few fighters,defending British forces would have to intercept to investigate any contact which appeared above the horizon of their land based radars.

With many aircraft available and able to operate beneath this radar horizon,Argentinian forces can force the Typhoons to quickly consume their fuel investigating widely dispersed contacts.

However,this is unlikely to force the British to scramble their Q.R.A. pair.

The Falklands Islands government operates fisheries protection vessels within it's territorial waters.

With ten maritime patrol aircraft operating below the radar horizon of British land based radars,Argentina would have little difficulty locating one of these vessels.

The arrest of one of these vessels by the Argentinian Navy would certainly attract the attentions of the only British warship in the area,Her Majesty's Ship York.

However,York has little anti-submarine and anti-ship capability.

The fourteen anti-ship missile armed Argentinian destroyers,frigates and corvettes and three submarines would then be in a position to commence hostilities by destroying H.M.S. York.

The only assets able to assist the British warship in a hurry would be the two remaining Typhoons on Quick Reaction Alert.


Unfortunately they do not have anti ship missiles and would have to use laser guided bombs** dropped from well within the missile engagement envelopes of the Argentinian warships.

Thus all defending aircraft may be airborne at the same time.

From the moment those aircraft run low on fuel,it will be some considerable time before they can return to base,land,be refuelled and maintained and take off again.

During this period,air assault forces can be deployed by the ten Argentinian Hercules transport aircraft with little fear of interception .

Once artillery is set up within range of the runway,the Typhoons will be grounded for the duration of the conflict.

The British will be unable to reinforce their troops by air while Argentina will be able to quickly build up a substantial superiority in ground forces.

With no prospect of victory or evacuation,British forces in the Falkland Islands would have little option but to surrender.






*Open source material refers to 2 different "surface wave" Over The Horizon radars on the Falklands,an older system made by Marconi and a more recent system made by Insyte (there is also a civilian "sky wave" radar at Goose Green) it is possible that these may be located in the North West of East Falkland but we are not aware of any official acknowledgement of the existence of such radars.


**Update:at the start of operations against Libya it was found that Typhoons were not equipped even to drop laser guided bombs.