Wednesday, 10 March 2010

Why Argentina Will Not Invade The Falkland Islands

In 1982,the Royal Navy was ready to fight Soviet nuclear submarines in the North Atlantic.

It was not ready to fight the Falklands War.

It is now.

Every Royal Navy warship,and many auxiliaries,now has the ability to shoot down fast jets and anti-ship missiles,unlike the fleet that sailed south in 1982 with completely inadequate air defences.

The Royal Navy is today very well trained in engaging fast moving air threats,again,unlike in 1982.

This capability was demonstrated when the Royal Navy became the only navy ever to shoot down an anti-ship missile in the Persian Gulf in 1991.

The Royal Navy also has airborne early warning which it lacked in 1982.

The air attacks which Argentina used so successfully in 1982 are no longer viable against the Royal Navy.

In 1982,the Royal Navy’s passive sonars,which were very useful against noisy Soviet nuclear submarines in deep water,proved inadequate against Argentine diesel-electric submarines in shallow water.

Today the Royal Navy’s Type 23 frigates have the world’s best shallow water anti-submarine capability thanks to the Merlin helicopter,Stingray torpedo and low frequency active/passive towed array sonar 2087 and active/passive bow sonar 2050.

In 1982 the Royal navy had a small,old and not very capable amphibious force which was about to be retired from service.

The amphibious force was lacking in both helicopters and suitable vehicles.

Today it has an all new and very capable amphibious capability,including a helicopter carrier and tracked armoured vehicles suitable for the terrain in the Falklands.

In 1982 British ground forces were not combat experienced and were poorly equipped.

Today they have many years of constant,intensive infantry combat experience and excellent personal kit.

One thing has not changed since 1982,the Royal Navy’s submarines can still sink any Argentine warship they can find.

The difference is,today they can do it much more quickly with high speed Spearfish guided torpedos.

Those submarines can also punch holes in runways at convenient times with Tomahawk missiles,as can the Fleet Air Arm and Royal Air Force Harriers if Storm Shadow missiles are integrated.

Again,unlike 1982 when Argentinian airbases were left to go about their business.

With the capacity of the Invincible class carriers now increased to 23 Harriers,and a total fleet of 74 aircraft,a task force is likely to take at least 60 Harriers with it to the Falklands.

The two aircraft carriers would take 46 between them,H.M.S.Ocean cannot sustain Harrier operations but she and many other ships,such as the Bay class,can ferry aircraft and launch them in an emergency.

While the Argentinians significantly outnumbered the British aircraft in 1982,today the British would have a 3:2 advantage,although their fighters would lack radar.

In summary,Argentina has no chance of taking on a modern British naval task group,although it has every chance of overwhelming the meagre defences in the Falkland Islands.

The Argentinians know there is little point invading the Falklands if they can’t hold them for more than a month.

Which is why they won’t invade them,despite the weakness of the defending forces.


Anonymous said...

I would argue that British ground forces lacked combat experience.

Yes the Guards had been on ceremonial duties.

But these were arguably NATO's best at a time when training budgets and standards were still high.

Yours, x from New Wars

tangosix said...

Hello X,

British troops were well trained by the standards of the day and far superior to most of the Argentine forces.
However,they still suffered from a lack of combat experience.
The lack of direct fire support in early battles and the lack of urgency in disembarking at Port Pleasant being the most obvious examples that spring to mind.

Today's British army (and Royal Marines) has both superior training and extensive combat experience which should give it a far greater margin of superiority over current Argentine ground forces than the army of 1982 had.


Anonymous said...

A great accounting for the better present combat abilities, but really what a waste of human potential all round. Argentina is a poor country with great inequities and this kind of war driven nationalism/patriotism is what unites people and will probably becomes a desperate political tool for some future leader.

Michael said...

Times change the window for Argentina to take them back is now within the next 5 years.

When the Queen Elizabeth comes on line...there is no way in hell that Argentina can take them back by force.

What people miss the the strategic review leaves the MOD in a mess for about 5 or 6 years but it should drastically improve coming out of this time along with the UK economy. The Tories in the UK have been harsh but what they have done is to fix things for the future even if it is tough just now for them.

So now is the time for the Argentina to invade for sure.

Britain is waning correct but Argentina is a mess likewise so they would have one big fight on their hands even today. But they will NEVER have a better chance than now.

Obama is liberal and he would support talks and hand back of the Falklands but he won't be in office forever and has more important issues. I would also note if Argentina did any sort of civilian killing on those Islands they would loose US support over night. Due to their less high tech ability this would be hard for them to avoid in any invasion.

I suspect MI5 are all over Argentina also so any chance of doing this before the UK fly in more euro fighters etc would be difficult. The british skynet satellites (one of the most advanced in the world) mean the UK does not need the US for surveillance or communications now. The Argentines have nothing to combat skynet with.

If oil is found and the UK does a deal with the USA as it can be tankard quickly to the US mainland then the game is over for Argentina. That oil revenue the resurgence of the UK Navy smaller but very high tech will make it impossible to get them back this century.

The idea they are argentine is sketchy at best anyone looking at democracy are clear the people vote for government they do not vote for the Argentines so they stay part of the UK and the UK will fight especially the Tories to keep them as long as the people of the Islands ask for it.

In conclusion time is now for the Argentines waste and they are gone for the remainder of this century. But fight and they gamble big time and there is no guarantee they could win.

Anonymous said...

Estimados: Argentina nunca invadira las Islas Malvinas, simplemente porque no quiere, porque no es el camino que el pueblo eligió para hacerlo, sino un par de militares que quisieron perpetuarse en el poder-

No obstante, y salvando las diferencias, quisiera que reflexionen sobre las consecuencias de seguir expoliando el Atlantico Sur, sin acatar ninguna de las resoluciones de la ONU sobre soberania, haciendo quedar a la misma como una oficina de reclamos mientras Uds. siguen tomando recursos que son de LATAM.
El "Barrio" no quiere a un vecino europeo, ni tampoco uno norteamericano-

El camino del retorno de Malvinas es el diplomatico; en algpun momento sus politicos consideraran que es posible TAMBIEN quedarse con algo mas de Argentina y allí nuevamente ambos países irán a una confrontación, pero el contexto de hoy, es muy diferente. Uds. hacen la guerra en varios frentes a la vez con la OTAN y hoy no pueden darse ése lujo-
Saludos, PAZ, y Malvinas argentinas por siempre-

Anonymous said...

Come on guys! Do you really, honestly think that Argentina is actually planning an invasion??? We have no guns for our army, our newest planes are at least 3o years old, and our battleships break and sink all by themselves when docked (no joke, it actually happened).
Besides, that was our last war, we're like the italians, we may be a lot of things but we're not warriors, and the last trully violent period of our history (wich peaked with the 1982 war) taught us that.
We're simply not willing to send anybody to die for no matter what the cause may be.
No, an invasion is out of the question... I mean, we'll keep on doing all that is within our reach to recover them one day. There's no need for military force, we are patient, it's been 180 years since the islands were invaded by the UK, we can wait a little longer, even if takes 2 more centuries.

If I were you I'd be more worried to see why the UK politicians keep on bringing up the ghost of an invasion... what are they trying to hide by stirring the feelings of nationalism? Believe me, that's the real reason...