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Thursday, 28 May 2020

Rationalising The Helicopter Fleet



Photo: Sgt. Andy Malthouse Royal Air Force Crown Copyright

There is no shortage of funding at the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence,and there never has been,the department's frequent financial crises,including the current one,are the result of incompetence induced waste,the United Kingdom's military and naval helicopter fleet being an excellent example.



Picture: L.A. (Phot.) Angie Pearce,Crown Copyright

A lack of rotary winged capability has been a significant problem for the United Kingdom's armed forces on operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and arguably contributed to the British Army's defeats there.



Picture: Corporal Rupert Frere,Crown Copyright

Lieutenant Colonel Rupert Thorneloe had warned the Ministry of Defence that a lack of helicopters was putting the lives of his troops at risk before his own death in Helmand province,Afghanistan.



Picture: C.P.O.A. (Phot.) Preece,Crown Copyright

Yet there was never a shortage of helicopters (at the time there were five hundred and twenty-four in service),but a shortage of the right kind of helicopters in the right place at the right time,which is not the same thing.


Picture: L.A. (Phot.) Angie Pearce,Crown Copyright

In Two Thousand and Six,Joint Helicopter Command provided Lord Drayson with advice on the numbers of helicopters available to Operation Telic: four Lynx Mark Seven from a Joint Helicopter Command total fleet of ninety-five;eight Sea King Mark Four from a Joint Helicopter Command total fleet of thirty-seven;and seven Merlin Mark Three from a Joint Helicopter Command total fleet of twenty-two.



Picture: L.A. (Phot) Paul A'Barrow,Crown Copyright

Indeed,in the three-quarters of a century that the United Kingdom's armed forces have operated helicopters,there has never been an occasion on which more than a fraction of the helicopter fleet has been deployed on operations.



Photo: L.A. (Phot.) Trotter Crown Copyright

It has been said that amateurs talk tactics but experts talk logistics,with respect to aircraft fleets,amateurs talk procurement costs but experts talk capability costs.


Photo: P.O. (Phot.) Mez Merrill Crown Copyright

A significant proportion of the cost of delivering rotary winged capability is the wages of aviators and aircraft maintainers,who would much rather talk about procurement costs.



Picture: Richie Willis,Crown Copyright

In recent years the Ministry of Defence has adopted a policy of reducing procurement costs by purchasing "off the shelf" helicopters,even though there are no "off the shelf" helicopters which are well suited to British military and naval requirements.



Picture: L.H. Kyle Heller,Crown Copyright

Theoretical savings which result from buying "off the shelf" helicopters,such as the Chinook and Apache,are a small proportion of the helicopter fleet's procurement cost and the helicopter fleet's procurement cost is a small proportion of the helicopter fleet's life cycle cost.



Picture: P.O.A. (Phot.) Mez Merrill,Crown Copyright

This is because the cost of operating a military or naval aircraft is many times greater than the cost of buying it.


Photo: S.A.C. Neil Chapman Royal Air Force Crown Copyright

For example,the Royal Air Force Merlin Mark Three fleet,since transferred to the Royal Marines,had a unit acquisition cost of nineteen million pounds.



Picture: Corporal Ian Forsyth,Royal Logistics Corps,Crown Copyright

However,with a flying hour costing thirty-four thousand pounds,in Two Thousand and Seven,and an average airframe life of less than it's ten thousand hour designed life (due to attrition) the total life cycle cost per Merlin is likely to be somewhat less than three hundred and forty million pounds.



Picture: P.O. (Phot.) Mez Merrill,Crown Copyright

It should be noted that the cost per flying hour most often quoted by the Ministry of Defence includes depreciation of development,procurement and other capital costs averaged across the flying hours generated by the aircraft fleet in addition to direct operating costs such as fuel and replacement parts,thus annualised cost and annual expenditure are not the same thing.




Had the Merlin fleet been larger these costs would have been spread more thinly over a larger number of flying hours,thereby reducing the cost per flying hour by thousands of pounds.



Picture: L.A. (Phot.) Steve Johncock,Crown Copyright

For example,for a fleet of around two hundred and forty of our proposed Hermes (Ultra Merlin) helicopters (one hundred and eight for the British Army,forty-eight for the Royal Marines,forty-eight for the Royal Navy and an additional thirty-six Royal Navy aircraft for charter to other government departments in peace timewith air frame lives of ten thousand hours per helicopter,every thousand million pounds spent on development shall add only about four hundred and seventeen pounds to the aircraft's cost per flying hour.



Picture: S.A.C. Tommy Axford,Crown Copyright

But that same one thousand million pounds spread over the ten thousand hour air frame lives of just forty-four Royal Navy and twenty-two Royal Air Force Merlins shall add fifteen hundred and fifteen pounds to the cost of each flying hour.




The single most important factor in the cost of a helicopter fleet is the number of front line helicopter crews,each helicopter crew must fly at least one hundred and eighty hours per year to maintain their skills,whether they are deployed on operations or not.



Picture: Ian Forshaw,Crown Copyright

Many more hours must be flown to train new air crews and instructors,the more front line air crews there are,the more trainee air crews and instructors there must be,each of those flying hours costs tens of thousands of pounds.



Photo: Sgt. Si Longworth R.L.C. (Phot.) Crown Copyright

In the Two Thousand and Seven to Two Thousand and Eight financial year the British Army Lynx helicopter fleet flew seventeen thousand nine hundred and fourteen hours,costing more than four hundred and twelve million pounds at a rate of twenty-three thousand pounds per hour.

In the Two Thousand and Seven to Two Thousand and Eight financial year the Royal Air Force Chinook helicopter fleet flew thirteen thousand three hundred and sixty-six hours,costing more than three hundred and twenty million pounds at a rate of  twenty-four thousand pounds per hour.



Photo: S.A.C. James Stier Royal Air Force Crown Copyright

In the Two Thousand and Seven to Two Thousand and Eight financial year the Royal Air Force Merlin helicopter fleet flew five thousand four hundred and seventy-nine hours,costing more than one hundred and eighty-six million pounds at a rate of thirty-four thousand pounds per hour.


Photo: L.A. (Phot) Pete Smith Crown Copyright

In the Two Thousand and Seven to Two Thousand and Eight financial year the Royal Navy Merlin helicopter fleet flew six thousand seven hundred and thirty-seven hours,costing more than two hundred and eighty-two million pounds at a rate of forty-two thousand pounds per hour.



Photo: Harland Quarrington Crown Copyright

In the Two Thousand and Seven to Two Thousand and Eight financial year the Royal Navy Lynx helicopter fleet flew eleven thousand seven hundred and ten hours,costing more than two hundred and twenty-two million pounds at a rate of nineteen thousand pounds per hour.



Photo: P.O.A. (Phot.) Mez Merrill Crown Copyright

The Ministry of Defence pays for "peace time budgeted flying hours" but additional hours flown on operations are paid for by the Treasury and therefore of little relevance to the defence budget.



Photo: L.A. (Phot.) Stuart Hill Crown Copyright

One way to reduce the number of annual peace time budgeted flying hours consumed by the helicopter fleet is to change the air crew's uniforms.



Picture: Unknown photographer,Crown Copyright

The British armed forces operate,or are supposed to operate,within the constraints of "Harmony Guidelines" which limit the amount of time for which helicopter squadrons may be deployed (these have been standardised on a thirty-six month reporting period since the following was published).


Photo: Peter Davies (M.o.D.) Photographer Crown Copyright

"Army harmony guidelines are that individuals should not exceed 415 days of separated service in any period of 30 months.".



Picture: Peter Davies,Crown Copyright

 "At unit level,tour intervals (a tour being 6 months) should be no less than 24 months.".



Picture: P.O.A. (Phot.) Mez Merrill,Crown Copyright

Thus Army Air Corps helicopter squadrons may spend no more than twenty percent of their time deployed on operations without exceeding their harmony guidelines.



"Harmony Guidelines for the RAF are based on formed unit tour intervals rather than individual personnel,whereby formed units,or sub-elements within them should spend four months on deployed operations followed by 16 months at base."



"The RAF Individual Separated Service assumption is that an individual should spend no more than 140 days of duty detached away from home in a rolling 12-month period."



Thus Royal Air Force helicopter squadrons may spend no more than twenty percent of their time deployed on operations without exceeding their harmony guidelines.



"Royal Navy harmony guidelines are that no individual should exceed 660 days of separated service in a three-year rolling period."




"Over a similar time span, ships or other units should not be deployed for more than 60 per cent. of their time."



Picture: L.A. (Phot.) Angie Pearce,Crown Copyright

Thus Royal Navy and Royal Marines helicopter squadrons may spend no more than sixty percent of their time deployed on operations without exceeding their harmony guidelines.



Therefore for every three front line British Army or Royal Air Force helicopter crews continuously deployed on operations there should be twelve more at home,each consuming one hundred and eighty flying hours per year to maintain their skills.



Picture: P.O.A. (Phot.) Hamish Burke,Crown Copyright

This means that in order to maintain the ability to continuously deploy three British Army or Royal Air Force helicopter crews on operations,in peace time the Ministry of Defence must pay for two thousand and seven hundred peace time budgeted flying hours annually (not counting hours flown by training and trials squadrons).



In Two Thousand and Seven it cost twenty-four thousand pounds to fly a Royal Air Force Chinook for an hour,at which rate it would cost sixty-four million and eight hundred thousand pounds per year to generate two thousand and seven hundred peace time budgeted flying hours.


Picture: P.O.A. (Phot) Ray Jones,Crown Copyright

In Two Thousand and Seven it cost forty-six thousand pounds to fly an Army Air Corps Apache for an hour,at which rate it would cost one hundred and twenty-four million and two hundred thousand pounds per year to generate two thousand and seven hundred peace time budgeted flying hours.



For every three front line Royal Navy or Royal Marine helicopter crews continuously deployed on operations there should be two more at home,each consuming one hundred and eighty flying hours per year to maintain their skills.




This means that in order to maintain the ability to continuously deploy three Royal Navy or Royal Marine helicopter crews on operations,in peace time the Ministry of Defence must pay for nine hundred peace time budgeted flying hours annually (not counting hours flown by training and trials squadrons).



In Two Thousand and Seven it cost thirty-four thousand pounds to fly a Royal Air Force Merlin (now flown by the Royal Marines) for an hour,at which rate it would cost thirty million and six hundred thousand pounds per year to generate nine hundred peace time budgeted flying hours.



Thus the peace time cost of maintaining the ability to keep three Royal Marine Merlin crews deployed continuously is less than half the cost of maintaining the ability to keep three Royal Air Force Chinook crews deployed continuously,even though the hourly cost of flying a Merlin is forty percent higher than the hourly cost of flying a Chinook.



Picture: S.A.C. Nicholas Egan,Royal Air Force,Crown Copyright

One can imagine a senior decision maker at the Ministry of Defence looking at the hourly cost of the Merlin and Chinook helicopters and concluding that a fleet of Chinooks would cost less,but as we can see,that is not the case.



Picture: P.O.A. (Phot.) Mez Merrill,Crown Copyright

Another way to reduce the number of annual peace time budgeted flying hours consumed by the helicopter fleet is to procure helicopters which may perform many roles.



An attack helicopter like the Apache is of no use when there is a need to hunt submarines.



A transport helicopter like the Chinook is of no use when there is a need to reconnoitre.



An anti-submarine helicopter like the Merlin is of no use when there is a need to destroy armoured vehicles.


Photo: Peter Davies,Crown Copyright

A reconnaissance helicopter like the Wildcat is of no use when there is a need to transport artillery.



Picture: Graeme Main,Crown Copyright

When there is a need to deploy helicopters,it is unlikely that the mixture of capabilities in any fleet of specialised helicopters would be in proportion to the operational demand for rotary wing capability.



Picture: Grand Logistics

It is also unlikely that the demand in theatre for any given capability at any given time shall be in proportion to the mixture of capabilities of the helicopters deployed there.



Picture: Sergeant Wes Calder,Royal Logistics Corps,Crown Copyright

Therefore,in order to deliver the same operational capability,a fleet of specialised helicopters must be larger than a fleet of multirole helicopters in order to deploy more aircraft on operations to compensate for peaks in demand for the capabilities of each type of specialised helicopter.



Photo: Richie Willis Crown Copyright

When a specialised helicopter fleet is not deployed on operations,because it's narrow capability is not required,it's air crews still have to fly one hundred and eighty flying hours per year each to maintain their skills and the Ministry of Defence still has to pay for those hours.




Unfortunately,there are few useful tasks to which the flying hours of undeployed specialised helicopters,such as the Chinook and Apache,may be put.



Photo: Unknown photographer Leonardo photograph

Our proposed Hermes (Ultra Merlin) and Super Merlin helicopters which may perform many different tasks,often at the same time,shall be of use when there is a need to hunt submarines,reconnoitre,destroy armoured vehicles,transport artillery and even shoot down cruise missiles.



Photo: L. Phot. Seeley Crown Copyright

Therefore a front line fleet of multirole helicopters,such as the Hermes,shall have a larger proportion of it's aircraft available to deploy for any necessary task at any given time than a fleet of single role helicopters.



Photo: P.O.A. (Phot.) Mez Merrill Crown Copyright

They shall also be more likely to be suitable to perform whatever role may be required when deployed in theatre.



Picture: Unknown photographer,R.N.A.S. Yeovilton Photographic Section,unknown copyright.

Thus the front line Hermes (Ultra Merlin) or Super Merlin fleet shall be be significantly smaller than the current specialised helicopter fleet whilst delivering the same capability in theatre.



Picture: L.A. (Phot.) Bernie Henesy,Crown Copyright

This smaller front line helicopter fleet shall require fewer front line helicopters and fewer pilots consuming fewer peace time budgeted flying hours each year.



Picture: Peter Davies (MOD) Photographer,Crown Copyright

Further,a rotary wing fleet made up of a single front line helicopter type shall permit economies of scale in design,manufacture,maintenance,servicing,upgrading and training,allowing both a smaller ratio of total fleet size to forward fleet size and lower costs per flying hour.



Photo: P.O.A. (Phot.) Mez Merrill Crown Copyright

Thus the all Hermes (Ultra Merlin) or Super Merlin fleet shall deliver the same capability as the current mixed fleet of specialised helicopter types at a lower cost,or a greater capability for any given cost.



Photo: L. Phot. Seeley Crown Copyright

Under our proposed naval readiness cycle,in a four year period sailors and marines shall be on leave for three hundred and sixty-five days,away from home non-operationally (trials,training and transiting) for one hundred and twenty-two days,working eight hours per day at their home base for two hundred and forty-three days and deployed or ready to deploy on operations,for not more than seven hundred and thirty-one days.



Photo: L. Phot. Dan Rosenbaum Crown Copyright

This shall allow a Commando Helicopter Force of four front line squadrons,each with twelve Hermes (Ultra Merlin) or Super Merlin helicopters and twelve crews,to continuously deploy two full squadrons providing search and rescue,transport,surveillance and attack capabilities.



Picture: L.A. (Phot.) Dan Hooper,Crown Copyright

The two undeployed squadrons shall generate an average of a dozen peace time budgeted flying hours per day which may be used for training,training support,aid to civil powers and,unlike the Chinook or Apache,coastal submarine hunting,air defence,sea surveillance,search and rescue or ferrying "Fosties" out to warships (thereby eliminating the cost of chartering civilian helicopters).



Picture: L. (Phot.) Kyle Heller,Crown Copyright

In a similar manner,two Royal Navy wings,each of three squadrons of twelve front line pilots and twelve Lightning II combat aircraft,shall be able to continuously keep one full strength wing of thirty-six aircraft deployed at sea,or ready to deploy at short notice,a larger force than the United Kingdom has deployed on operations since the invasion of Iraq sixteen years ago.



Photo: S.A.C. Tim Laurence Crown Copyright

The undeployed wing may keep up to two aircraft on Quick Reaction Alert at their home base and/or perform training support tasks,at an annual cost of around fifteen thousand peace time budgeted flying hours,for both wings,including training and trials squadron flying hours.




Aircraft not required by the undeployed wing shall either be used by training and trials squadrons,be returned to the depot for servicing or be held in reserve.



Picture: Sergeant Nik Howe,Crown Copyright

Under Royal Air Force harmony guidelines one hundred and eighty front line pilots would be required to continuously deploy the same thirty-six pilot carrier air wing at an annual cost of around forty thousand peace time budgeted flying hours,including training and trials squadron flying hours.



Photo: Unknown Royal Navy official photographer

Given sufficient notice to bring their readiness cycles in to phase,it shall be possible to deploy all of these naval fighter squadrons at the same time,generating a combat aircraft force larger than the United Kingdom has deployed on any operation since the liberation of Kuwait twenty-nine years ago.



Photo: L.A. (Phot.) Ray Jones Crown Copyright

It is apparent that there is the potential both to reduce the cost of the United Kingdom's military and naval helicopter fleets,by over ten thousand peace time budgeted flying hours and hundreds of millions of pounds per year,and at the same time to increase the fleet's capability.



Picture: Richard Townshend,copyright UK Parliament 2020

A competent Secretary of State for Defence shall have no difficulty identifying the waste in the helicopter fleet and eliminating it.



Picture: Staff Sgt. Reed Knutson,160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (Airborne),United States' Army

An incompetent Secretary of State for Defence may perpetuate the waste for decades to come by ordering more single purpose aircraft,such as the Chinook and Apache,and operating them under inefficient British Army or Royal Air Force harmony guidelines.

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